In the February 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), oil prices remained high enough to push US oil production to record levels in 2023, reaching 12.6 million barrels (b/d) per day. We anticipate that new products in the Permian Basin will drive overall crude oil production growth in the United States.

In March 2020, just before the coronavirus pandemic, US oil production reached an all-time high of 13.1 million barrels per day. Following the destruction of demand in the energy sector, the benchmark price of US crude fell to a historic low of minus $40 per barrel in April 2020, and production fell to less than 11.6 million barrels per day by December of that year.

Oil prices have risen dramatically since these lows, according to weekly EIA data, but production has barely recovered, reaching around 11.6 million barrels last week. And the increase is anticipated to happen until next year.

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